Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird population

Across Europe, rapid population declines are ongoing in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species, but the development of appropriate conservation actions across such large migratory ranges is severely constrained by lack of understanding of the demographic drivers of these declines. By constructing regional integrated population models (IPMs) for one of the suite of migratory species that is declining in the south-east of Britain but increasing in the north-west, we show that, while annual population growth rates in both regions vary with adult survival, the divergent regional trajectories are primarily a consequence of differences in productivity. Between 1994 and 2012, annual survival and productivity rates ranged over similar levels in both regions, but high productivity rates were rarer in the declining south-east population and never coincided with high survival rates. By contrast, population growth in the north-west was fuelled by several years in which higher productivity coincided with high survival rates. Simulated population trajectories suggest that realistic improvements in productivity could have reversed the decline (i.e. recovery of the population index to ≥ 1) in the south-east. Consequently, actions to improve productivity on European breeding grounds are likely to be a more fruitful and achievable means of reversing migrant declines than actions to improve survival on breeding, passage or sub-Saharan wintering grounds

A preliminary audit of medical and aid provision in English Rugby union clubs:compliance with Regulation 9

BackgroundGoverning bodies are largely responsible for the monitoring and management of risks associated with a safe playing environment, yet adherence to regulations is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate and evaluate the current status of medical personnel, facilities, and equipment in Rugby Union clubs at regional level in England.MethodsA nationwide cross-sectional survey of 242 registered clubs was undertaken, where clubs were surveyed online on their current medical personnel, facilities, and equipment provision, according to regulation 9 of the Rugby Football Union (RFU).ResultsOverall, 91 (45. 04%) surveys were returned from the successfully contacted recipients. Of the completed responses, only 23.61% (n = 17) were found to be compliant with regulations. Furthermore, 30.56% (n = 22) of clubs were unsure if their medical personnel had required qualifications; thus, compliance could not be determined. There was a significant correlation (p = −0.029, r = 0.295) between club level and numbers of practitioners. There was no significant correlation indicated between the number of practitioners/number of teams and number of practitioners/number of players. There were significant correlations found between club level and equipment score (p = 0.003, r = −0.410), club level and automated external defibrillator (AED) access (p = 0.002, r = −0.352) and practitioner level and AED access (p = 0.0001, r = 0.404). Follow-up, thematic analysis highlighted widespread club concern around funding/cost, awareness, availability of practitioners and AED training.ConclusionThe proportion of clubs not adhering overall compliance with Regulation 9 of the RFU is concerning for player welfare, and an overhaul, nationally, is required

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

On the flexibility of the design of Multiple Try Metropolis schemes

The Multiple Try Metropolis (MTM) method is a generalization of the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which the next state of the chain is chosen among a set of samples, according to normalized weights. In the literature, several extensions have been proposed. In this work, we show and remark upon the flexibility of the design of MTM-type methods, fulfilling the detailed balance condition. We discuss several possibilities and show different numerical results

DESI Focal Plate Alignment

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is under construction to measure the expansion history of the universe using the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) technique. The spectra of 35 million galaxies and quasars over 14000 deg2 will be measured during the life of the experiment. A new prime focus corrector for the KPNO Mayall telescope will deliver light to 5000 robotically positioned optic fibres. The fibres in turn feed ten broadband spectrographs. Proper alignment of focal plate structure, mainly consisting of a focal plate ring (FPR) and ten focal plate petals (FPP), is crucial in ensuring minimal loss of light in the focal plane. A coordinate measurement machine (CMM) metrology-based approach to alignment requires comprehensive characterisation of critical dimensions of the petals and the ring, all of which were 100% inspected. The metrology data not only served for quality assurance (QA), but also, with careful modelling of geometric transformations, informed the initial choice of integration accessories such as gauge blocks, pads, and shims. The integrated focal plate structure was inspected again on a CMM, and each petal was adjusted according to the updated focal plate metrology data until all datums were extremely close to nominal positions and optical throughput nearly reached the theoretically best possible value. This paper presents our metrology and alignment methodology and complete results for twelve official DESI pe tals. The as-aligned, total RMS optical throughput for 6168 positioner holes of twelve production petals was indirectly measured to be 99:88 0:12%, well above the 99.5% project requirement. The successful alignment fully demonstrated the wealth of data, reproducibility, and micron-level precision made available by our CMM metrology-based approach

Focal plate structure alignment of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is under construction to measure the expansion history of the universe using the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation technique. The spectra of 35 million galaxies and quasars spanning over 14,000  deg2 are measured during the life of the experiment. A prime focus corrector for the Kitt Peak National Observatory Mayall telescope delivers light to 5000 robotically positioned optic fibers. The fibers in turn feed 10 broadband spectrographs. Proper alignment of the focal plate structure, mainly consisting of a focal plate ring and 10 focal plate petals, is crucial in ensuring minimal loss of light in the focal plane. A coordinate measurement machine (CMM) metrology-based approach to alignment requires comprehensive characterization of critical dimensions of the petals and the ring, all of which are 100% inspected. The metrology data not only serve for quality assurance but also, with careful modeling of geometric transformations, inform the initial choice of integration accessories, such as gauge blocks, pads, and shims. The integrated focal plate structure is inspected again on a CMM, and each petal is adjusted individually according to the updated focal plate metrology data until all datums are extremely close to nominal positions and optical throughput nearly reached the theoretically best possible value. We present our metrology and alignment methodology and complete results for 12 official DESI petals. The as-aligned, total RMS optical throughput for 6168 positioner holes of 12 production petals is indirectly measured to be 99.88  %    ±  0.12  %  , well above the 99.5% project requirement. The successful alignment fully demonstrated the wealth of data, reproducibility, and micron-level precision made available by our CMM metrology-based approach

Whole genome protein microarrays for serum profiling of immunodominant antigens of Bacillus anthracis

&lt;p&gt;A commercial Bacillus anthracis (Anthrax) whole genome protein microarray has been used to identify immunogenic Anthrax proteins (IAP) using sera from groups of donors with (a) confirmed B. anthracis naturally acquired cutaneous infection, (b) confirmed B. anthracis intravenous drug use-acquired infection, (c) occupational exposure in a wool-sorters factory, (d) humans and rabbits vaccinated with the UK Anthrax protein vaccine and compared to naïve unexposed controls. Anti-IAP responses were observed for both IgG and IgA in the challenged groups; however the anti-IAP IgG response was more evident in the vaccinated group and the anti-IAP IgA response more evident in the B. anthracis-infected groups. Infected individuals appeared somewhat suppressed for their general IgG response, compared with other challenged groups. Immunogenic protein antigens were identified in all groups, some of which were shared between groups whilst others were specific for individual groups. The toxin proteins were immunodominant in all vaccinated, infected or other challenged groups. However, a number of other chromosomally-located and plasmid encoded open reading frame proteins were also recognized by infected or exposed groups in comparison to controls. Some of these antigens e.g., BA4182 are not recognized by vaccinated individuals, suggesting that there are proteins more specifically expressed by live Anthrax spores in vivo that are not currently found in the UK licensed Anthrax Vaccine (AVP). These may perhaps be preferentially expressed during infection and represent expression of alternative pathways in the B. anthracis &quot;infectome.&quot; These may make highly attractive candidates for diagnostic and vaccine biomarker development as they may be more specifically associated with the infectious phase of the pathogen. A number of B. anthracis small hypothetical protein targets have been synthesized, tested in mouse immunogenicity studies and validated in parallel using human sera from the same study.&lt;/p&gt;</p

Assessing the Health of Richibucto Estuary with the Latent Health Factor Index

The ability to quantitatively assess the health of an ecosystem is often of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, research in this area has relied upon multimetric indices of various forms. Although indices may be numbers, many are constructed based on procedures that are highly qualitative in nature, thus limiting the quantitative rigour of the practical interpretations made from these indices. The statistical modelling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed to express ecological data, collected to construct conventional multimetric health indices, in a rigorous quantitative model that integrates qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modelling approach allows (a) statistical inference of health for observed sites and (b) prediction of health for unobserved sites, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated on freshwater ecosystems. The goal of this paper is to adapt this approach to modelling estuarine ecosystem health, particularly that of the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada. Field data correspond to biotic health metrics that constitute the AZTI marine biotic index (AMBI) and abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. We also briefly discuss related LHFI research involving additional metrics that form the infaunal trophic index (ITI). Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model to rigorously identify the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt-clay content --- all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers --- towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem.Comment: On 2013-05-01, a revised version of this article was accepted for publication in PLoS One. See Journal reference and DOI belo